Looking for the long shot in Horse Racing
Truth be told when it comes to horse racing betting and handicapping everyone would love to cash more longshot tickets. This is because the long shots are the ones that have the most payouts but on the flipside it’s reward vs investment. The reason that they are longshots is through a good study of the horses in the race this horse was originally deemed less likely to win. For example if you a horse that is 3 to 1 this means out of 3 races this horse should win at least one of these races. If you have a horse that is 18 to 1 out of 18 races this horse should win one race.
This article will give you some qualities to look for that might make a horse more likely to win the race than the odds play out.
Same Odds Same Chances
If there are two horses that are 18 to 1 does that mean they are both equal? Well in odds yes but if you dig further into the race you might pick up on different features that might make one favor over the other. Let’s say that one horse has a jockey with a 6% win average while the other is at 15%. We would tend to favor the horse that is 15%. Also in the past races there is a sign where the horse really hates the distance or surface which would make him least likely to win.
Layoffs & Condition
You will see many times a horse has long odds just due to the layoff between races. This may make you think that the horse has no chance of winning just because he has not raced in a while. If you have been around horse racing for a bit you have been burned like I have by a horse who was good when he raced but the layoff made you run away from him. A key tip is to look if he has had frequent workouts in between the layoff. If the horse has been working out every two to three weeks then he/she is in good condition for the race.
Competitive at Level Before
This is something that many handicappers always look at and you should not gloss over it here. When looking at the odds on the board has this horse raced against similar horses before and been competitive. This does not necessarily mean that the race horse won the race just that he was in the mix and not too far behind at the finish line. You can also visit the class of the horse to see if it is coming from an allowance or stake race. If he ran a horrible stake race and is now dropping to an allowance or from an allowance to claiming this could spot a key play.
If you are wagering on a horse track that is very sloppy the odds of a long shot getting in the top three increase tremendously. It does help to look through the horses that have had some success before on muddy tracks but sometimes everything goes out the window. I try to pick a few horses who are off the radar when betting sloppy tracks and they pay off nicely when they hit.
These are some tips on how to pick the long shot in horse racing that you can use in your arsenal. In the Kentucky Derby there are so many horses that many times a long shot will prevail too. Here is a site for 2015 Kentucky Derby info to check out as well.
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