Long Shot Favorite Overlay Strategy
This strategy is an old one but can have massive results when used properly and flat out makes a lot of since. Its best used when you are at a track and there are a lot of inexperienced handicappers (people who know nothing about horse racing other than higher odds pay more money) It also works well if a lot of long shots have been coming in throughout the day.
On the last race you will have a lot of gamblers, which is what they become when they lose discipline (gamblers) that have been losing throughout the day due to long shots coming in. They try to save face by picking a long shot and loading up on it to get some of the money back. This is not a smart thing to do but its what a majority fall into.
Your bet then is simply the morning line favorite. There is usually a lot of thought and well spent handicapping done to pick the morning line favorite
and they actually do win their share of races. When the gamblers bet the long shots you will see a morning line favorite come in at a good price and you can capitalize on this opportunity.
Also be on the look out for many inexperienced bettors. I know at Fairmount Park in Illinois they have a party at the park which brings a ton of people who are there to have a great time and don’t know a thing about horse racing. They bet long shots that don’t have a prayer in winning~ leaving these favorites at 3 to 1 and sometimes 4 to 1 that run away with the race. Keep this one in mind and it will pay off.
Happy Handicapping
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