How to Bet the Breeders Cup

The Breeders’ Cup is the biggest horse race that takes place each year which started back in 1984. It changed the game and provided an incentive for the best horses to stay in training longer.

Currently the Breeders Cup rivals the famous Kentucky Derby as the most exciting race of the year but there are some differences. The Breeders cup is months leading up to it and the Derby is over a much shorter time. In the Derby its all about the 3  year olds but in the Breeders Cup the 3 year olds can tackle older horses in six races. The Kentucky Derby is the only race that has as many as 20 starters but the Breeders’ Cup is limited to 14.  The Breeders Cup is spread over eight races.

Preparing for the Breeders Cup is very important if you want to win money. Knowing what type of horse usually wins the Breeders’ Cup race can help you tremendously. The winners of Breeders Cup come from the same place over and over again. For examples 79 of the horses who received the Eclipse Awards in the 1990’s 45 of them started their careers at one of the three major tracks New York (Belmont, Saratoga, and Aqueduct), the three major tracks in Southern California (Santa Anita, Hollywood, and Del Mar), the two major tracks in Kentucky (Keeneland and Churchill Downs) or at Gulfstream Park. Very true that a star can come from anywhere but the facts just do not back this up.

Distaff (Ladies Breeders Cup)

At the first two Breeder Cup races at Gulfstream in 1989 and 1992 horses that made their last starts in Europe were 0 for 28. So take note of the horses that are coming from Europe in the last start to the US. The statistics may not be this resounding but they definitely are not favorable when coming from Europe to the states for the Breeders cup.

Another good statistic is with many of the Breeders cup form plays a bigger factor than others. In the 17 Breeders’ cup through the 2000, the favorites won the Distaff 47 percent of the time. This is well above the usual 33% favorites winning average. The distaff is the Ladies Classic that is for fillies and mares three and up with some of the best horses in the country. One thing to also pay attention to in the Distaff is speed. Which is the horse that will be running first or second or close within two lengths of the lead at first call. The speed horses were 11 out of 17 in the Distaffs through 2000 which is a 65% strike ratio. Focus on Kentucky which all but one Distaff winner through 200 came from.

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Breeders Cup Classic

The Breeders Cup Classic is where the best horses in the world compete in one single race. These horses have raced in different tracks and different countries putting together a record that would get them a single entry into the most expensive horse race in the country. The average speed rating for the classic is 116.

With this in mind its surprising more favorites do not win the race but currently only 29% of the Classics winners are favorites. Speed does pretty well in the Classic winning 41% of the runnings through 2000. Keep in mind though that the only front runner was in 1991 so speed is good in the Breeders cup but tactical speed is key.

One final key to keep in mind and an important one is home court advantage. When the horse is running the Breeders Cup especially in the US and you can see it has had prep races before at the same track, Take note! These horses have a high win percentage especially if they were competitive and have won at the track before.

Hope these tips help you dominate the Breeders Cup this year. Take them to heart and do your own handicapping blending what you have learned here.

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Happy Handicapping

Joe Kaufman

Author Attribute

2013 Kentucky Derby Prep Races

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