Horse racing systems are an interesting breed. One does need some sort of strategy to approach the issue, but there are many pitfalls along the way as most strategies known as “systems” are nothing but scams. All it takes is a simple internet search on “horse racing systems” to see that the number of shady websites offering to sell horse system e-books and strategy advice indeed overshadows legit sites dealing in legit advice and strategy information.
Therefore, before we go any further, let’s set this straight: one needs to differentiate between horse racing systems and horse racing strategy. Much like sports betting, horse racing is a fundamentally negative EV (expected value) activity under the normal circumstances, on account of the taxation that comes in the shape of the vig. All gambling and gambling-related activities carry such “tax”, because that’s the way the house makes its money, and without this vig/juice/rake – call it whatever you want, there would be no casino gambling, sports betting, horse racing and poker. In casino gambling the vig is the house edge. In sports betting it’s the juice, in poker there’s the poker rake. No system out there can beat a game which has a built-in negative long-term EV, and if you do not believe me, do a little bit of research and you’ll see that beating a built-in house edge is indeed mathematically impossible, as attested by mathematicians and gambling specialists everywhere. It’s all a myth.
Does that mean you should lay down the weapons and head home tail between legs? For those too lazy to do a little bit of reading and studying, that’s exactly what it should mean. For someone hell-bent on making money on his wagers though, there’s always a way. Skilled handicappers (and reverse handicappers) can find and exploit situations in sports betting which – unlike the plain square propositions – carry positive long term EV.
The same concept works in horse racing too. Mind you however that this is not a system I’m talking about, rather a strategy which allows you to uncover value where others find none.
Never hit the track with the negative mentality of “I’m going to lose anyway”. If you do that there’s little point in going there in the first place isn’t there? Though the EV is mostly negative, the keyword here is “mostly” which means there are exceptions, and what you’ll do is squeeze among those exceptions and make money.
Handicapping goes a long way in this vert and the advice accumulated on the pages of this website will take you a long way towards beating the EV-. A lot of the horse racing handicapping is about the form of the horses. You need to eliminate horses deemed unfit and find those in good form.
If there’s no way you can adopt a hands-on approach to this task (you can’t actually see the horses), let the jockeys and trainers clue you in: these guys will select races that suit their horses, and thus they will do a lot of the handicapping for you. Also, the top jockey and trainer is not in the leader’s position for nothing.
Next, you need to track the odds. Again, assuming that you’re at a foreign track deprived of all information and handicapping aid, you need to let someone else do the work for you. I mean what’s the track handicapper good for anyway? Take a look at the morning odds churned out by the track handicapper and compare it with the current odds. If you see some horse quoted at 4/1 in the morning, which is a 2/1 now, with a top class jockey and trainer, you should obviously break open the piggy bank. Seeing another horse with a 4/1 morning quote at 12/1 should immediately raise a red flag.
The rake can be beaten in online poker too, in a much simpler way too: all you need to do is to sign up for a rakeback deal at rakemeback.com to start enjoying the benefits of rake reduction.Share on Facebook