Free Horse Racing Tips and Strategies UK First Time Blinkers Statistics » Free Horse Racing Tips and Strategies For your Free Copy of The Top 50 Horse Racing Tips Click Here!

UK First Time Blinkers Statistics

First Time Blinkers On The Flat by David Renham
With the flat season gathering pace, I have decided to look at horses that are blinkered for the first time. There are numerous ideas why horses are given blinkers to wear.
These include:
-         To try and get the horse to concentrate as some horses get distracted by the other runners in a race;
-         To help the horse break quickly from the stalls. Blinkers often have this effect when worn for the first time;
-         As a last resort to try and improve a horses’ performance.
What one should realise however, is that generally fitting first time blinkers is a negative rather than a positive. The data for this article is taken from the last 6 complete seasons – flat/all weather racing only. All profits are calculated to £1 level stakes at SP. It should be noted that I have included only runners that are wearing blinkers only (for the first time) – I have excluded runners who were wearing tongue ties also. For the record the combination of blinkered first time + tongue tie produce virtually identical strike rates and returns (from a much smaller sample).
Firstly let us look at the results of all runners wearing blinkers for the first time on the flat over the period of study:
Wins
Runs
Profit/loss
ROI%
441
6336
7%
-£1748.87
-27.6
Essentially therefore these runners win around once in every fourteen starts (roughly) for losses of just under 28 pence in the £. Not a great starting point from a betting perspective. However, let us break these stats down into different categories to see if we can either find better betting propositions, or ‘gilt-edged’ laying opportunities.
Age
The perception is that blinkers improve younger horses best, especially 2yos. Let us look at the results breakdown when split by age:
Age
Wins
Runs
Profit/loss
ROI%
2
85
1197
7.1
-£433.73
-36.2
3
185
2755
6.7
-£928.06
-33.7
4
93
1378
6.8
-£344.38
-25.0
5
46
539
8.5
+£68.41
+12.7
6
19
261
7.3
-£80.13
-30.7
7
5
127
3.9
-£66.00
-52.0
8 or older
8
79
10.1
+£35.00
+44.3
As we can see 2yos actually perform below the ‘norm’. Looking at the ages as a whole, there is no discernable pattern, although much older horses (8yo+) have done relatively well from a very small sample.
Digging deeper into the 2yo stats, I have broken down the data by number of career runs:
Career starts
Wins
Runs
Strike Rate%
Profit/loss
ROI%
debut
4
53
7.5
-£29.00
-54.7
2nd career start
4
110
3.6
-£46.00
-41.8
3rd career start
4
155
2.6
-£98.50
-63.5
4th career start
23
261
8.8
-£127.41
-48.8
5th career start
17
215
7.9
-£10.50
-4.9
6th career start
11
170
6.5
-£87.81
-51.7
7th or more
22
233
9.4
-£34.50
-14.8
Two things that seem to stand out here are firstly that 2yos that have raced several times (7 or more), react to first time blinkers relatively well; secondly 2yos that are assigned blinkers on their 2nd or 3rd career start do extremely poorly in terms of strike rate. My guess is that there is an over-reaction to a poor debut run and the addition of blinkers actually makes things worse.
Market position
Generally the market is an excellent guide to the chances of each horse. Let us look at first time blinkered horses coupled with their market position:
Market pos
Wins
Runs
Strike Rate%
Profit/loss
ROI%
Favourite
85
334
25.5
-£51.82
-15.5
2nd favourite
78
437
17.9
-£70.06
-16.0
3rd favourite
55
510
10.8
-£154.50
-30.3
4th in betting
47
532
8.8
-£99.50
-18.7
5th in betting
39
567
6.9
-£139.00
-24.5
6th or bigger
43
621
6.9
-£34.00
-5.5
7th or bigger
94
3335
2.8
-£1,200.00
-36.0
At first glance the performance of favourites looks OK. However, when we take ALL flat favourites as a whole, the strike rate is around 30-31% with losses of only 6-7%. Hence, horses that start favourite when blinkered for the first time are not good betting propositions.
Race types
Let us break the data down now by specific race types:
Race type
Wins
Runs
Strike Rate%
Profit/loss
ROI%
Amateur races
2
57
3.5
-£43.25
-75.9
Claimers
42
482
8.7
-£7.43
-1.5
Group/Listed
9
194
4.6
-£79.75
-41.1
Handicaps
246
3653
6.7
-£1,010.10
-27.7
Maidens
73
1023
7.1
-£426.17
-41.7
Sellers
34
569
6.0
-£204.38
-35.9
Although the data is limited a combination of first time blinkers and an amateur rider looks one to avoid. Indeed of the 55 losers, only 3 got placed. I decided to look back further just to gather a bigger data set. I looked at first time blinkered runners in amateur contests from 1997 to 2004 – they fared poorly once again with just 3 wins from 104.
Maiden races have seen losses of around 42 pence in the £ which above the base figure of 27.6p. Auction maidens have provided the poorest results for first time blinkered runners with just 12 wins from 279 (SR 4.3%) for a loss of £151.06 (ROI -54.1%). Indeed, 2yo maiden Auction races are even worse with just 3 winners from 160 runners (SR 1.9%) for a hefty loss of £129.50 (ROI -80.9%).
Claiming races have seen close to a break-even situation despite a low strike rate of around 9%. Indeed if you exclude maiden claimers the strike rate rises to 9.3% and profits are made; albeit 9 pence profit for every £ wagered. However, it should be noted that these profit figures are essentially down to a few big priced winners and hence it is not an area where the backer can be confident to make a profit in the future.
Race distance
Let us break the data down now by race distance:
Race type
Wins
Runs
Strike Rate%
Profit/loss
ROI%
5-6f
139
2134
6.5
-£718.29
-33.7
7-8f
160
2270
7.0
-£583.43
-25.7
9-10f
58
876
6.6
-£225.05
-25.7
11-12f
61
694
8.8
-£128.31
-18.5
13f+
23
362
6.4
-£93.80
-25.9
In general there does not seem to be any pattern here. I had expected longer races to produce slightly poorer results but this is not the case.
Turf v all weather
 
Surface
Wins
Runs
Strike Rate%
Profit/loss
ROI%
All weather
203
2480
8.2
-£454.92
-18.3
Turf
238
3856
6.2
-£1293.95
-33.6
Horses wearing blinkers for the first time perform better on the all weather compared with turf. This could be due to the fact all weather racing is less competitive; or generally of lower grade. Whatever the reason, the stats are worth taking note of.
 
Jockeys
 
I decided to see if the experience of the jockey made a difference. The table below compares professional jockeys with claiming jockeys:
 
Jockey
Wins
Runs
Strike Rate%
Profit/loss
ROI%
professional
374
4914
7.6
-1127.87
-23.0
claiming
67
1422
4.7
-£621.00
-43.7
The figures seem to suggest the less experienced jockeys struggle when horses are blinkered for the first time. Losses close to 44 pence in the £ combined with a strike rate of under 5% means that one should swerve these jockeys under these circumstances.
 
Trainers
Some trainers have a better understanding of their animals than others so one would expect a real mix of results for first time blinkered runners. I have included all trainers that have saddled at least 30 horses with first time blinkers:
Trainer
Wins
Runs
Strike Rate%
Profit/loss
ROI%
Sir M Prescott
11
51
21.6
+£27.40
+53.7
B Smart
5
30
16.7
+£0.50
+1.7
C Cox
6
37
16.2
+£8.90
+24.1
I Semple
5
34
14.7
-£5.63
-16.5
R Charlton
5
35
14.3
-£9.13
-26.1
G Butler
5
36
13.9
+£19.00
+52.8
R Hannon
16
129
12.4
+£0.50
+0.4
M Tregoning
4
33
12.1
+£33.00
+100.0
R Harris
8
68
11.8
+£47.75
+70.2
J Boyle
4
34
11.8
+£1.00
+2.9
T Barron
6
54
11.1
-£12.00
-22.2
M Easterby
9
85
10.6
-£20.75
-24.4
C Brittain
6
57
10.5
-£12.38
-21.7
W Haggas
7
67
10.5
-£13.00
-19.4
J Moore
5
49
10.2
+£12.25
+25.0
M Johnston
12
118
10.2
+£1.58
+1.3
P Cole
9
89
10.1
-£29.25
-32.9
J Dunlop
6
61
9.8
-£11.67
-19.1
K Ryan
14
144
9.7
-£7.38
-5.1
P Grayson
6
64
9.4
-£17.05
-26.6
J Gosden
7
75
9.3
-£17.17
-22.9
B Meehan
15
161
9.3
+£8.08
+5.0
N Littmoden
4
44
9.1
-£17.50
-39.8
J Osborne
4
46
8.7
+£10.00
+21.7
G L Moore
6
72
8.3
-£24.38
-33.9
B Hills
3
36
8.3
+£15.00
+41.7
M Quinlan
3
36
8.3
-£18.50
-51.4
P Evans
4
50
8.0
-£8.50
-17.0
T Easterby
10
131
7.6
-£11.75
-9.0
E Johnson Houghton
2
31
6.5
-£6.00
-19.4
W Muir
4
64
6.3
-£35.75
-55.9
B Ellison
2
32
6.3
-£9.00
-28.1
M Dods
2
32
6.3
-£11.50
-35.9
Mrs A Perrett
4
67
6.0
-£30.00
-44.8
R Fahey
4
71
5.6
-£35.50
-50.0
E Dunlop
2
44
4.6
-£36.00
-81.8
R Beckett
2
50
4.0
-£20.00
-40.0
M Tompkins
2
57
3.5
-£43.50
-76.3
M Jarvis
1
30
3.3
-£25.00
-83.3
I McInnes
1
34
2.9
-£29.50
-86.8
P Blockley
1
35
2.9
-£30.00
-85.7
R Millman
1
37
2.7
-£8.00
-21.6
J Bradley
0
66
0.0
-£66.00
-100.0
A Berry
0
50
0.0
-£50.00
-100.0
J Given
0
41
0.0
-£41.00
-100.0
J Eustace
0
31
0.0
-£31.00
-100.0
J Weymes
0
30
0.0
-£30.00
-100.0
Sir Mark Prescott has excellent figures considering how poor these runners do in general – a better than 1 in 5 strike rate with profits of over 50 pence for every £ wagered. At the other end of the scale, Milton Bradley and Alan Berry have combined to produce 0 winners from 116 runners.
——————–
To conclude, horses blinkered for the first time are essentially poor investments. However, some are much worse than others as this article has hopefully highlighted. If nothing else, I suspect this article may save you from backing certain horses that have a very poor chance of winning. This should help your betting bank balance.

Top Horse Racing Tracks in the UK 

Share on Facebook

No Comments

No comments yet.

RSS feed for comments on this post. TrackBack URI

Leave a comment

 

WordPress Themes