There have been many studies done on the importance of early speed in Horse Racing Betting. This is a topic that is not to be overlooked. Studies of thousands of Claiming horse races have showed that there are 3 common traits that winners have and these are:
1.) Early Speed
2.) Improving or peaking form
3.) A drop in class (Preferably 30% or more)
With this being said you can see that Early speed was listed as #1 so its important when we are handicapping horse racing to take this into account. Especially in claiming races.
Key point: The speed rating of a horse in sprints is twice as important as the class its going up against. This is valid only in sprint races but the speed horses when more than their share of races even when going up in class.
What is early Speed? Basically it boils down to how fast is the horse out of the gate. People wonder how important is early speed. Consider these facts below
1.) Horses that run 1st, 2nd, or 3rd at the first call in past performances win 5 out of every 9 races.
2.) These ones that run 1st, 2nd, or 3rd on first call definitely win their share of horse races and as a group they approximately profit 28 percent on the invested dollar when bet to win.
3.) Early horses run better in sprints but the above statistics hold true above in all races.
4.) Horses that get the clear early lead at first call are among the best bets at the track. They win almost 3 times their rightful share and return 80 percent on the dollar.
If you are viewing a race where you feel early speed is a factor (whether it be that particular track or the races that have taking place before the one you are wagering on.) Here are some tips to assign speed points and the higher the number the quicker the horse out of the gate. Here they are:
For horses in sprints award speed points as follows for the last 3 races~
* for any sprint in which the horse ran 1-2-3 at the first call gets 1 point
* and for any horse the ran within two lengths at the first call of the leader gets 1 point
*for any other performance, unless the horse ran within one length of the lead at the first call pass this previous race up and go to next (no more than 5 races)
Exception~ at 7 furlongs, a horse is eligible for 2 points only if it led at the first call, if the horse was merely second or third, or with in 2 lengths it just gets one point.
For horses in Routes award speed points as follows~
* any route in which the horse ran 1-2-3 at the first call gets 1 point
* and any route in which the horse ran within three lengths of the leader at first call gets 1 point
* and for any sprint in which the horse ran within 6 lengths of the leader at the first call gets 1 point
* Any sprint in which the horse was neither 1-2-3 nor with in 6 lengths of the lead at the first call is passed, and the Handicapper refers back to the next most recent race, never going more than 5 races back
For Peaking form:
Things to look at if a horse is peaking form is age. If the horse is 2 – 3 years old this is a big growing time in a horse and he/she can drastically improve from one race to another.
Look at fast workouts preferably at 5 furlongs or more.
Look at the race and the position as the horse is finishing its important to note if the horse was gaining ground in the stretch even if it did not win the race.
Look for workouts that have a bullet which means the horse was breezy and had a fast work out with not much effort.
Also peaking form can come from Lasix for the first time or simply going to a distance that it prefers.
These strategies will let you know who the front running speed horse is going to be by taking the higher #.Share on Facebook